Mission
The mission of the OSMP to give to our customers the best oil spill trajectory estimates,
summarized into probability products. The MMS assesses oil-spill risks associated with
offshore energy activities off the U.S. continental coast and Alaska. This analysis
addresses the likelihood of spill occurrence, the transport and fate of spilled oil, and
the environmental impacts that might occur as a result of the spill. The MMS Oil-Spill
Risk Analysis (OSRA) model combines the probability of spill occurrence with a statistical
description of hypothetical oil-spill movement on the ocean surface.
Customers
MMS NEPA staff for environmental documents, other federal and state agencies for review of
EIS’s, EA’s and endangered species consultations, and oil industry specialists
preparing the Oil Spill Response Plans (OSRP).
Best oil spill trajectory estimates
Paths of hypothetical oil spills based on hindcasts (history) of winds, ocean currents,
and ice in Arctic waters, using the best available input environmental information.
Products
Output of the model which will include tables of probability of contact and GIS
representations of these probabilities, with and without the probability of occurrence of
one or more spills.
Vision
The MMS is committed to the continuous improvement of the OSRA estimations and EIS
analysis, and it will use the results of field and modeling studies to fulfill that
commitment. As offshore activity expands into deeper waters and new geographic areas, MMS
oil-spill modeling will be applied to risk assessments and validated with environmental
observations.
For more information, contact Walter Johnson.
