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Oil Spill Modeling Program
The MMS assesses oil-spill risks associated with offshore energy activities
off the U.S. continental coast and Alaska by calculating spill
trajectories and contact probabilities. These analyses address the
likelihood of spill occurrences, the transport and fate of any spilled
oil, and the environmental impacts that might occur as a result of the
spill. The MMS Oil-Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) model combines the
probability of spill occurrence with a statistical description of
hypothetical oil-spill movement on the ocean surface.
Modeling results are used by MMS staff for preparation of environmental
documents in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act;
other Federal and State agencies for review of environmental impact
statements (EISs), environmental assessments, and endangered species
consultations; and oil industry specialists preparing the oil spill
response plans (OSRP).
Paths of hypothetical oil spills are based on hindcasts (history) of winds,
ocean currents, and ice in arctic waters, using the best available input
of environmental information. Outputs of the model include tables of
probable contact and GIS (Geographic Information System) representations
of these probabilities, with and without the probability of the
occurrence of one or more spills.
The MMS is committed to the continuous improvement of OSRA estimations and
EIS analysis, and use the results of new field and modeling studies to
fulfill that commitment. As offshore activity expands into deeper waters
and new geographic areas, MMS oil-spill modeling will be applied to
pertinent risk assessments and validated with environmental
observations.
For information pertaining to operational safety, pollution prevention, oil
spill response, and cleanup capabilities, visit our
Technology Assessment and Research (TA&R) Program. The TA&R
Program is a research element encompassed by the MMS Regulatory Program.
 OSRA Reports
OSRA Spill Occurrence Rates
OSMP Research Efforts
Information to be used in Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill Response Plans
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