MMS ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES PROGRAM: ONGOING STUDIES
MMS OCS Region: Alaska (Social Sciences & Economics)
Title: Update Oil Industry Labor Factors for Alaska Manpower Model (AK-98-09A)
Total Cost: $143,000 Period of Performance: FY 1998 - 2002
Conducting Organization: Jack Faucett & Associates
MMS Contact:

Chief, Alaska Environmental Studies Section
Description:
Background
The Manpower Model was created in the late 1970's and early 1980's to project the number of workers directly employed in proposed OCS exploration and development activities. This data is used in another model to predict secondary employment and population. The employment data from the Manpower Model and the secondary employment and population data are used in Environmental Impact Statements. The input factors to the Manpower Model were based on information, no more current than the early 1980's, from industry on the actual number of workers used for 20 different tasks and numerous subtasks through the full range of activity from exploration and development to production. Technology has changed sufficiently that the input variables to this model should be re-examined and adjusted. The employment and population projections in recent EIS's do not reflect current industry practices and technology. Information about current industry practices is best obtained from industry representatives and consultants to industry.
Objectives
The objective of this study is to update the Manpower Model with input variables that accurately reflect the number of workers needed to complete tasks associated with exploration, development, and production on the OCS.
Methods
  1. Interview industry representatives and possibly knowledgeable consultants to the oil and gas industry.
  2. Determine number of workers and amount of time needed to complete the tasks and subtasks defined in the Manpower Model.
  3. Determine costs by task.
  4. Input these updated oil- industry-labor and cost factors to the Manpower Model.
  5. Test the Manpower Model to ensure it is functioning properly with the updated factors.
  6. Document the factors and the model.
The current Manpower Model has one set of factors for all of Alaska. The update will be for arctic operations only.
Importance to MMS
Projections of direct OCS employment, secondary employment, and population in Arctic region EIS's will be more accurately reflected. With more accurate projections, stakeholders will have more confidence in the economics sections of the EIS's. More accurate projections may be used in decisions regarding postlease mitigation.
Current Status:
MMS reviewed a draft final report and model in July 2001. In August MMS approved a modification of the contract to make changes to documentation for the model and the model itself. (This project for the Arctic is being coordinated with a parallel project for the Sub-Arctic managed by MMS Headquarters and due for completion in October 2001.)
Final Report Due: Aug. 2003
Publications: None at this time.
Affiliated WWW Sites: Social Science in MMS information page.
Revised date: Feb. 2003
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