MMS ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES PROGRAM: ONGOING STUDIES
MMS OCS Region: Alaska
Title: Beaufort Sea and Chukchi Sea Seasonal Variability for Two Arctic Climate States (AK-93-48-32)
Total Cost: $282,000 Period of Performance: FY 1999-2002
Conducting Organization: University of Alaska at Fairbanks, Coastal Marine Institute
MMS Contact:

Chief, Alaska Environmental Studies Section
Description:
Background
Proshutinsky and Johnson (1997) recently showed evidence for the existence of two regimes or climate states for arctic atmosphere-ice-ocean circulation. Wind-driven motion in the Arctic was found to alternate between anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation with each regime persisting for 5-7 years, based on analysis of modeled sea level and ice motion. Anticyclonic wind-driven motion in the Arctic and Beaufort Sea appeared during 1946-1952, 1958-1962, 1972-1979, and 1984-1988. Cyclonic motion appeared during 1953-1957, 1963-1971, 1980-1983, and 1989-1997. The two climate states should differ in ice cover, ice thickness and drift, circulation (including reversal of the Beaufort gyre), ocean temperature and salinity, heat fluxes, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, cloudiness, and precipitation and runoff. Confirmation of significant climate state differences has strong implications for both circulation and oil spill modeling in the Arctic.
Objectives
The objectives of this study are to:
  1. Compare temporal and spatial variability of environmental fields at seasonal and inter-annual time scales.
  2. Compare circulation and ice drift data for the two climate states.
  3. Compare differences between ice cover for the two climate states.
  4. Compare differences in 3D temperature and salinity distributions for the two climate states.
Methods
  1. Analyze temporal and spatial variability of environmental fields using standard oceanographic statistical analyses, time series analyses, and empirical orthogonal function analysis.
  2. Use hierarchy of modeling studies by using a 3D circulation model to compare ice drift and ocean circulation under the two regimes.
  3. Assign historical Scanning Multi-channel Microwave Radiometer and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data collected since the late 1970’s and the Walsh Johnson data set (digitized ice charts for the period 1905-1995) to the two climate states and compare to calculate the differences in ice concentration/cover for the two states.
  4. Use the 3D model to compare temperature and salinity distributions for the two climate states on the basis of model results and observational data collected during the two climate states.
  5. Provide analysis for each climate state of:
    1. Remotely sensed ice motion fields.
    2. Simulated surface circulation, wind forcing, ice motion, and ice cover fields.
Importance to MMS
This study is precursor in evaluating whether MMS needs to change how we model Arctic circulation and oil spill trajectories. If this study confirms the importance of climate states in the Arctic, then using data averaged across both climate states to drive the circulation models may give erroneous results.
Current Status:
Current activities are devoted to analyzing 1997 data and additional data from 1998-2001to evaluate unusual patterns which may represent a new weather regime. Final report expected September 2002.
Final Report Due: February 2002
Publications: Maslanik, J.A., M.C. Serreze, and T. Agnew. 1999. On the Record Reduction in 1998 Western Arctic Sea-Ice Cover. Geological Research Letters 26: 1905-1908.

Polyakov, I.V., A.Y. Proshutinsky, and M.A. Johnson. 1999. Seasonal Cycles in Two Regimes of Arctic Climate. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 25761-25788.

Proshutinsky, A. Y. 2001. Beaufort and Chukchi Sea Seasonal Variability for Two Arctic Climate States. In Alaska OCS Region Eighth Information Transfer Meeting Proceedings, Preparer MBC Applied Environmental Sciences. Anchorage: USDOI, MMS, Alaska OCS Region.

Proshutinsky, A. Y., Johnson, M. A., and J. Maslanik. 2000. Beaufort and Chukchi Sea Seasonal Variability for Two Arctic Climate States [Abstract]. In University of Alaska Coastal Marine Institute. Annual Report No. 6. Fairbanks, AK, University of Alaska, Coastal Marine Institute and USDOI, MMS, Alaska OCS Region.

Proshutinsky, A. Y., Johnson, M. A., Maslanik, J. A., and T.O. Proshutinsky. 2000. Beaufort and Chukchi Sea Seasonal Variability for Two Arctic Climate States. In University of Alaska Coastal Marine Institute. Annual Report No. 7. Fairbanks, AK, University of Alaska, Coastal Marine Institute and USDOI, MMS, Alaska OCS Region.

Proshutinsky, A.Y., M.A. Johnson, and T.O. Proshutinsky. In press. Understanding Climatic Controls on Contaminant Transport with Sea Ice in the Arctic Ocean. Annuals of Glaciology.

Proshutinsky, A.Y., I.V. Polyakov, and M.A. Johnson. 1999. Climate States and Variability of Arctic Ice and Water Dynamics During 1946-1997. Polar Research 18: 1-8.

Proshutinsky, A.Y. and T.O. Proshutinsky. 1999. Arctic Atmosphere and Ocean Oscillations. EOS Suppl. 80: F212.
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Revised date: March 2002
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