| MMS ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES PROGRAM: ONGOING STUDIES | ||||||
| MMS OCS Region: | Alaska | |||||
| Title: | Analysis of Covariance of Human Activities and Sea Ice in Relation to Fall Migrations of Bowhead Whales | |||||
| Total Cost: |
$135,000 |
Period of Performance: | FY 2004-2005 | |||
| Conducting Organization: |
LGL, Ltd. |
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| MMS Contact: | ||||||
| Description: | ||||||
| Background Comprehensive analysis of the potential effects on bowhead whales of oil-industry activities has been limited by the resolution of data available on these activities and by disparate survey methodologies used to obtain whale data. Quantitative data on historical human/industrial activities and sea ice in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea will become available upon completion of the study “Reference Manual and GIS Overlays of Oil-Industry and Other Human Activity (1970-1995) in the Beaufort Sea,,” (2002-071) to be completed in 2004. This follow-on study will compare that information with available bowhead distributional and behavioral data. Specific hypotheses will be tested to estimate statistical significance of relationships of key variables. |
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| Objectives The goal is to estimate the significance of hypothesized relationships of previous oil-industry activity and sea ice on the Beaufort Sea distribution and behaviors of bowhead whales. Specific objectives are to: 1. Assess the comparability of bowhead whale data collected by site-specific and broad-area surveys and the feasibility of pooling these data to detect whale distributional shifts or behavioral changes up to 40 miles from noise sources. 2. Obtain from available information appropriate measures of sea ice for covariant analysis with whale distribution data. 3. Present preliminary tests and findings, define biases and assumptions, and recommend appropriate statistical procedures (e.g., analysis of covariance, regression techniques, K-S tests, spatial analysis, computer modeling. 4. Apply applicable procedures to test hypotheses on relationships of the timing, location, and activity status of oil-industry/human activity and the distribution and behavior of bowhead whales (1979-1998). |
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| Methods 1. Utilize existing data in the recently developed MMS database for Beaufort Sea human activity and data in the MMS Bowhead Whale Aerial Survey Project database. 2. Consider positions and daily activity status of each drilling platform, helicopter, icebreaker, and other support vessels. 3. Adopt similar measures between years to facilitate inter-year comparisons and trend analysis. 4. Control for presence of commercial vessels, subsistence hunting, and low-flying aircraft. 5. Evaluate site-specific and wide-area data from MMS- and oil-industry-funded surveys of the fall distribution of bowhead whales (1979-1998) for applicability and pooled analysis. 6. Using appropriate inferential statistical procedures, test hypotheses for significant relationships of human activities and bowhead distribution and evaluate power of tests. 7. Produce a final report suitable for a wide audience, including North Slope subsistence whaling villages. |
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| Importance to MMS Information from the study will be valuable to the consultative process under the existing stipulation on subsistence whaling and other subsistence activities (Stipulation No. 5, Sale 170). It addresses: 1. Long-standing concerns about oil-industry activity raised by subsistence whale hunters. 2. Site-specific information needs expressed by oil-industry representatives at previous government workshops on developing site-specific monitoring guidelines. 3. Important study recommendations made at the Arctic Seismic Synthesis and Mitigating Measures Workshop (Barrow, Alaska, March 1997). |
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| Current Status:
This study was completed on schedule and the “Final Report for Phase I” is under review. |
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| Final Report Due: |
NA |
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| Publications: |
Richardson, J. W. 2003. Analysis of Covariance of Human Activities and Sea Ice in Relationship to Fall Migrations of Bowhead Whales. in Proceedings of the Ninth MMS Information Transfer Meeting. U. S. Department of Interior, Minerals Management Service, Alaska OCS Region, Anchorage, AK 93 pp. |
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| Affiliated WWW Sites: | NA | |||||
| Revised date: |
April 2004 |
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| ESPIS |
ESPIS - All completed
ESP Studies: |
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