1	Regional Priorities and Information Needs
2	Outline of Regional Priorities and Information Needs The Alaska OCS ESP Strategic Picture/Major Activities Current Technical Issues for Expected Activities Future Topical Themes and Study Linkages Study Priorities in FY 2004
3	STRATEGIC PICTURE/ MAJOR ISSUES The total OCS adjacent to Alaska is large, the proposed Beaufort Program Area alone covers more than 9.8 million acres and a coast of roughly 400 miles For scale comparison……..
4	THE ALASKA OCS REGION Physical Environment Complex, variable climatic and meteorological characteristics Extremes of temperature and day length, much of the year adjacent seas dominated by ice (Beaufort, Chukchi, Bering)…..and even Cook Inlet
5	"Other features include extremes of..." Other features include extremes of weather, extensive glaciation, volcanic and seismic events
6	Ecological/Biological Productivity Generally very high, with wide range of diversity (e.g. about 26 endemic marine mammal species CI/GOA vs 4 in the Beaufort Sea)
7	Human Environment Many of Alaska’s indigenous people seek a traditional subsistence lifestyle in coastal and interior villages
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9	STRATEGIC PICTURE/ MAJOR ISSUES FIVE YEAR LEASING PROGRAM 2002-07
10	STRATEGIC PICTURE/ MAJOR ACTIVITIES FIVE YEAR LEASING PROGRAM 2002-07, Upcoming: Beaufort Sale September ‘03 Cook Inlet Sale May ‘04
11	STRATEGIC PICTURE/ MAJOR ACTIVITIES FIVE YEAR LEASING PROGRAM 2002-07, Upcoming: Beaufort Sale ‘03 Cook Inlet Sale May ‘04
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17	CURRENT TECHNICAL ISSUES See Alaska Study Development Plan Pages 4 and 14 for detail on issues and information needs For Arctic activities, at least 16 different, multidisciplinary study issues ranging from pollutant monitoring to integration of traditional knowledge
18	Exploration and Development Activity and Related Issues: Beaufort Sea Effects of oil spills and discharges, cumulative development on sociocultural systems and subsistence, noise from industry operations on protected species; structures on local oceanography, oil spill risk and clean-up, pipeline construction … Studies on pollutant monitoring, oil spill fate, marine mammals, waterfowl, habitat changes, bowhead feeding areas, subsistence and anticipation of effects, subsistence harvest, benthic communities, monitoring… (See pages 15-17)
19	Cook Inlet issues... trace metals and hydrocarbon pollution refinements to knowledge of major oceanographic processes prediction of fate of oil spills long term changes to marine food webs effects on commercial fishing and existing community infrastructure effects on other key economic activities (e.g. recreational fishing) effects on subsistence harvest/contaminants integration of traditional knowledge into scientific processes and decision making......
20	RESULTANT PLANNING TRENDS MUST COVER BOTH MESO-SCALE AND REGIONAL CONTEXT LONGER RANGE POSSIBLE NEEDS IN CHUKCHI AND NORTON BASIN CONTINUED MONITORING MAXIMIZE COOPERATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE OPPORTUNITIES
21	Potential Decisions: FY 2004 and Beyond Five Year Program: Beaufort Lease Sales ‘03, ‘05, and ‘07 Cook Inlet Sales ‘04, ‘06 Chukchi/Hope Basin Special Sale ‘04 Norton Basin Special Sale ‘04 Therefore, Proposed Studies FY 2004-5 are diverse compared to FY 2003, with post-sale emphases.
22	How does the AK ESP Support the Potential Decision Needs? Ongoing Studies Topics / # Physical Oceanography 12 Fate / Effects of Pollutants 8 Protected Species 18 Biological 7 Socioeconomic 8 Multidisciplinary 6 Proposed Studies
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24	TOPICAL THEMES FY 2004 AND BEYOND Physical Oceanography and Modeling, finer scale circulation models, nearshore modeling, ice modeling, surface circulation radar mapping Fate and Effects, meso-scale monitoring - trace metals, hydrocarbons, oil-spill risk, weathering of oil in snow and ice
25	Topical Themes, continued Endangered/Protected Species, monitoring bowhead whale migration, bowhead feeding areas, polar bears, waterfowl, Surveys of endangered Steller’s eiders in Cook Inlet, presence of endangered whales in Cook Inlet,
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27	Topical Themes, continued Potential Effects on Marine Mammals, Seabirds, and Other Marine Life, seabird and mammal deterrence from oil spills, harbor seal habitat use, increasing artificial light in Arctic offshore, Arctic Fish Migrations, Dynamics and effects on arctic subsistence species, subsistence harvest trends
28	Topical Themes, continued Effects on Unique Benthic Communities, “Boulder Patch”, optical measurements and kelp productivity, community composition and diversity, monitoring
29	Topical Themes, continued Effects on Social Systems Subsistence lifestyle, cumulative effects of development on subsistence and sociocultural systems, hunting/ fishing access, communications space/use conflicts with industrial operations
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31	Topical Themes, continued Environmental Monitoring Arctic Lower Cook Inlet
32	Monitoring as a Scientific Test of Hypothesis Generalized null hypothesis under test: “There is no change over time for the parameter of interest” H_o : D_t=0 t=1,2,3,……………..n Tested at desired level of confidence and needed power
33	IMPORTANT BASELINE/MONITORING SCIENTIFIC STUDIES, CENTRAL AK BEAUFORT
34	IMPORTANT BASELINE/MONITORING SCIENTIFIC STUDIES, CENTRAL AK BEAUFORT (CONT.)
35	Study Integration Program Level Project Level Special Workshops Recent Examples: Workshop on Small Scale Sea Ice and Modeling for Nearshore Beaufort/Chukshi Seas Workshop on Physical Oceanography in the Beaufort Sea Fall ’03 Arctic Cisco Variability Workshop Project Management Other
36	Example Project Level Integration:
37	PRELIMINARY RANKING FOR FY 2003 See Section 2.2, Page 20,Table 1. Nine priorities in multiple disciplines, related to Arctic activities and Cook Inlet Preliminary Ranking Classification Shown (High,Higher, Highest) Please cross reference to Study Profile text, page nos. provided. Each profile provides issue-linkages under “Background” and “Importance to MMS.”
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39	"This concludes our overview." This concludes our overview. We look forward to discussions of specific proposed studies tomorrow.